Bitcoin ETFs Outpace Supply as Mining Difficulty Hits Record Highs
Mining Economics, Trends and Insights
Despite recent volatility, the broader macro picture remains supportive, with ETFs once again driving demand as inflows return in size. In fact, ETF buying is now outpacing the daily supply of newly mined Bitcoin, adding fuel to the bullish case. On the mining side, network difficulty has reached fresh all-time highs, while Bitdeer’s launch of the SEALMINER A3 Series underscores the next wave of hardware competition. For premium readers, we break down Q4 hashprice dynamics and explain why volatility in this halving epoch may look very different from past cycles.
Despite Volatility, Macro Stays Bullish for Bitcoin
ETFs Inflows Are Back
More ETF Buying Than the Daily Bitcoin Supply
Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Reaches New All-Time High
Bitdeer Launches SEALMINER A3 Series
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Hashprice Dynamics in Q4 2025
Why Hashprice Volatility is Lower This Halving Epoch
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Despite Volatility, Macro Stays Bullish for Bitcoin
Last Wednesday, the Fed cut rates by 25 bps. The first reduction in nine months, bringing the Effective Federal Funds Rate down to 4.08%. Chair Powell described it as a “risk management cut,” citing weakening US labour conditions and downside risks to employment. Markets had anticipated the move, but it still signals looser financial conditions ahead. For Bitcoin, the setup is clear: if inflation stays contained, easier policy means stronger liquidity, which has historically fuelled risk assets like BTC.
Still, volatility hasn’t disappeared. Bitcoin saw its largest daily liquidations since June on Monday the 22nd, sending price down 3.1% versus last week despite a relatively quiet range before that. While near-term uncertainty remains around the pace of Fed cuts, the broader backdrop of falling yields, rising liquidity, and a dovish policy continues to reinforce a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Even on red days, the macro environment remains strongly supportive of the ongoing bull market.
ETFs Inflows Are Back
In early August, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced their second-largest outflow since launch. But momentum shifted in September, with strong inflows returning. On September 11th, ETFs recorded $741.5 million in net inflows, the biggest single day increase in two months. As a result, total assets under management (AUM) have climbed to $152.96 billion, now less than $3 billion away from setting a new all-time high. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC remain the leaders of the pack.
More ETF Buying Than the Daily Bitcoin Supply
With ETF inflows picking up again, buying demand from ETFs now exceeds the entire daily supply of newly mined Bitcoin. Every block currently delivers 3.125 BTC as a block subsidy (post-April 2024 halving). With roughly 144 blocks mined per day, the daily supply of new Bitcoin is about 450 BTC. This means that when ETF inflows exceed 450 BTC per day, they are effectively absorbing more than all freshly mined Bitcoin, creating demand pressure on circulating supply.
Sustained ETF inflows at this level can tighten liquidity and create upward price pressure, especially when paired with long-term holders reducing sell-side activity. If this trend continues, it will be one of the most important forces shaping Bitcoin’s supply/demand balance into Q4.
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Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Reaches New All-Time High
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty has climbed to a record 142.34 trillion, underscoring the relentless growth in network security and competition among miners. Since the start of the year, difficulty has increased by 29.66%, driven by a surge in deployed hashrate. In fact, September marked a historic milestone: the Bitcoin network’s hashrate pushed past 1 zetahash per second (1 ZH/s) with conviction, a level once thought to be years away.
The combination of record-high difficulty and a declining BTC price has pushed hashprice (USD/PH/day) below $50 for the first time since early May.
Bitdeer Launches SEALMINER A3 Series
Last week Bitdeer unveiled the SEALMINER A3 Series, its latest generation of self-developed Bitcoin mining rigs. Built on the same A3 chip, the line-up delivers 240–690 TH/s across air- and hydro-cooled models.
The four new models include:
A3 Pro Hydro – 660 TH/s at 12.5 J/TH
A3 Hydro – 500 TH/s at 13.5 J/TH
A3 Pro Air – 290 TH/s at 12.5 J/TH
A3 Air – 260 TH/s at 14 J/TH
The launch positions Bitdeer directly alongside Bitmain’s Antminer S21 XP, currently the industry efficiency benchmark of 13.5 J/TH (270 TH/s at 3645 W). Air-cooled variants have the so-called shoe-box design, while hydro models adopt a 2U server form factor for dense racking. All rigs retain Bitdeer’s low-noise design. Mass production is slated for late September to early October.
Bitdeer continues to scale earlier models: 4.1 EH/s of A1 rigs and 27.8 EH/s of A2 rigs are now energized, most deployed across its U.S., Norway, and Bhutan sites. In August alone, Bitdeer energized 7.8 EH/s of A2 machines, pushing its realized hashrate up 40% month-over-month and mining 375 BTC, a 33% increase from July.
Looking ahead, Bitdeer is developing the SEAL04 chip, aiming for an efficiency breakthrough of around 5 J/TH. The upcoming SEALMINER A4 is expected to deliver wall-mount power consumption in the range of 5.5–6 J/TH. At the same time, Bitdeer is expanding its U.S. manufacturing capacity to support future production.
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Hashprice is no longer experiencing the wild rollercoaster it witnessed in 2017 and 2021. Understanding this shift is critical, because even with lower volatility, the thinner margins of the 3.125 BTC subsidy epoch leave miners more exposed to modest swings. In the premium section, we break down the hashvalue projections, difficulty trends, and BTC price levels miners should watch heading into Q4 2025.
Hashprice Dynamics in Q4 2025
Why Hashprice Volatility is Lower This Halving Epoch
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