Uptober Is Off To A Solid Start
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Uptober Is Off To A Solid Start
BTC shows strength, hashrate set new ATH
As many market participants were hoping for, October started with strong price action. Not only price is up but also hashrate continues it pattern of fresh all-time highs each month. An almost neutral difficulty adjustment combined with a bullish movement of BTC, led to a small uptick in hashprice. ASIC prices are not following the Uptober trend and even set record lows across all generations of hardware. In this week’s market analysis I will look at the following:
Bitcoin Price
Network Hashrate
Difficulty Adjustment
Hashprice
ASIC Prices
Fun Fact
News & Must Listen Podcasts
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Bitcoin Price
Traditionally, October has gained recognition as "Uptober" owing to the favourable performance in the cryptocurrency market. The historical trend of Bitcoin's returns in October has consistently shown positive results, experiencing losses only on three occasions in the past. Given this robust track record, October stands out statistically as one of the most promising months for Bitcoin's price appreciation.
Since the low on September 11th, BTC has been recovering. At the end of September price broke through the 50 SMA on the daily. In the first days of October the momentum continued and price went all the way up to $28,610. Right now price retraced below the 200 SMA which is confluences with the 100 SMA. Bulls would want to see BTC above all SMA’s to keep momentum to the upside.
Network Hashrate
At the moment of writing network hashrate is printing a fresh all-time high. On the 7 daily moving average, hashrate is currently at an impressive 431 EH/s. In 2023 we saw a new ATH each month. After each high, hashrate would take a breather before continuing up. With a growth rate of 62.6% YTD, the first three quarters of this year have been remarkable.
Uptime is a crucial factor for self-mining and hosting businesses. Simply because downtime means no revenue. Read all about why uptime is important and how to optimize it.
Difficulty Adjustment
After a 5.48% difficulty increased on September 19th, today (October 3rd) difficulty adjusted 0.35% to 57.32T. Even though the adjustment was a small one, network difficulty is marking a new high.
Hashprice
Hashprice is still in the lower part of the range it has been in for the biggest part of 2023. The positive price action pushed hashprice back above $0.06/TH/Day. With hashvalue at 225 Sats/TH/Day, BTC price will need to get back above the $35K level before hashprice recovers to $0.08/TH/Day (top part of the range) with current difficulty.
ASIC Prices
In the beginning of Q3, ASIC prices seemed to be putting a bottom. But after a few weeks of plateauing during the summer, prices dropped once again over the last month. Next-gen (under 25 J/TH), new-gen (25-38 J/TH) and mid-gen (38-68 J/TH) all declined to new all time lows. 38-68 J/TH machines fell below the $5/TH mark. The difference between old-gen and mid-gen hardware is now only $0.18/TH.
Fun Fact
Texas is the Bitcoin mining capital of the United States. The end of 2021 Texas made up 8.43% of hashrate in the US. In July 2023 this grew to 28.50%. This percentage might actually be even higher as there was a period of heavy curtailment in July because of heat waves. Miners go to Texas for abundant energy and a permissive regulatory environment.
Almost 25% of all miners use hydropower as their energy source. Hydro is popular because it is considered renewable and environmentally friendly. Often it provides a stable and consistent energy supply, which is desirable for a mining operation. But what is hydropower and how is it generated? Check out last week’s newsletter.
Bitcoin Miner Marathon Confirms Mining Invalid BTC Block Due to a Bug
Oliver Knight - 27 September 2023 (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin mining company Marathon Digital (MARA) has mined an invalid Bitcoin block at height 809478, according to several developers, miners and researchers. The miner confirmed the mining of the invalid block on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), citing a bug during an experiment.
You Can Now Trade Bitcoin Mining Hashpower on Arbitrum
Andrew Throuvalas - 27 September 2023 (Decrypt)
The Lumerin Hashpower Marketplace creates a novel method for decentralizing Bitcoin's global hashrate and makes mining accessible to retail investors.
Bitcoin miners beef up Texas operations ahead of extinction-level event, exclusive data shows
MacKenzie Sigalos - 26 September 2023 (CNBC)
Texas dominates the U.S. bitcoin mining space, according to data from Foundry USA. Miners have migrated to Texas for its pro-crypto regulatory environment and support from the local energy provider, ERCOT. A lot of migration has come from southern and midwestern states like Nebraska, North Carolina, Kentucky, and Oklahoma.
Tecpetrol to mine cryptocurrencies in Vaca Muerta to prevent gas venting
Victoria Terzaghi - 24 September 2023 (RioNegro)
The oil company sealed an agreement with a US firm to use the gas that it cannot inject into networks. They will allocate 60,000 cubic meters per day that will also allow them to advance in an oil project.
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