Whale Sell-Offs, New Hardware Playbook, and the Rise of Free Blocks
Mining Economics, Trends and Insights
The Bitcoin market is shifting rapidly. From Fed-driven price pumps to billion-dollar whale sell-off, from U.S. reshaping the ASIC supply chain to hashrate stalling just shy of new highs. Meanwhile, a fee drought is squeezing miners, leaving revenues increasingly tied to BTC price action. For premium members, we take a deeper look at the rise of “free blocks,” changing user behaviour, and the strategies miners will need to survive if the low fees trend becomes the new normal. Let’s dive in.
From Fed Pump to Whale Dump
Ancient Supply Is Outpacing New Supply
US Made the New Playbook for Hardware Manufactures
Hashrate Stalls Just Below Record Level
Fee Drought Leaves Miner Revenues at the Mercy of BTC Price
Premium Members Only:
Rise of “Free Blocks”
Changing User Behaviour
Strategic Outlook for Miners
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From Fed Pump to Whale Dump
Bitcoin’s price action has remained subdued in recent weeks, reflecting a mix of macroeconomic shifts and on-chain dynamics. Following the Fed’s signal of possible interest rate cuts, BTC pumped from below $112,000 to over $117,000. Unfortunately, BTC quickly lost momentum and resumed its downward trend. BTC is now trading below $110,000 in a range which has acted as resistance on multiple occasions over the last year.
Although prices remain within 10% of all-time highs, these levels have proven attractive for large holders looking to realize profits. Over the weekend, a Bitcoin whale sold 24,000 BTC, untouched for seven years and worth over $2.7 billion. This triggered a sharp $4,000 drop in minutes from which the market has yet to fully recover. The same whale still holds 152,874 BTC worth over $17 Billion.
Ancient Supply Is Outpacing New Supply
According to Fidelity Digital Assets Following the 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s “ancient supply”—coins unmoved for 10+ years—began outpacing new issuance for the first time in history. On average, 566 BTC enter this category daily versus 450 BTC mined, highlighting the growing influence of ultra long-term holders. By June 2025, ancient supply represented more than 17% of total supply, with nearly 3.4 million BTC valued at over $360 billion, though a portion is lost or inaccessible. Projections indicate ancient supply could reach 20% of all BTC by 2028, 25% by 2034, and potentially 30% if large public company treasuries are included.
However, post-2024 election data shows upticks in movement: ancient supply declined on 10% of days versus a long-term average of 3%. Similarly, five-year holders have seen a 39% daily decline rate since the election. Much of this “ancient” supply is concentrated among whales who originally bought Bitcoin at $10 or less. Today, each coin they sell requires roughly $112,000 of fresh capital to be absorbed by the market. This stream of supply helps explain why BTC’s upward momentum has been slower in this cycle despite strong macro tailwinds.
US Made the New Playbook for Hardware Manufactures
The Trump import tariff policies are reshaping the Bitcoin mining industry in the US, with companies adjusting supply chains to mitigate rising costs on foreign-made hardware. Some examples:
Bitcoin ASIC producer Canaan struck a deal with Cipher Mining to deliver 6,840 Avalon A15Pro, with production split between the U.S. and Malaysia, its first major U.S. production order.
Bitmain has increased shipments of electronic components from China to its U.S. and plan to launch an assembly plant in Texas or Florida by Q3, with domestic production scheduled to begin in early 2026.
MARA ordered $73.3M worth of Auradine’s U.S.-made Teraflux miners.
Earlier this month Proto launched its ASIC miner Rig. The company has U.S.-based manufacturing and support.
Bitdeer is now following the same path. According to CFO Jeff LaBerge, the firm plans to begin building rigs in the U.S. this year, betting that domestic manufacturing will offset thinner margins and challenges in acquiring foreign equipment under Trump’s trade policies. Its strategy of local production underscoring that U.S.-based manufacturing has become the new playbook for mining hardware makers navigating the tariff era.
Hashrate Stalls Just Below Record Level
At the start of the month, Bitcoin’s network hashrate briefly peaked at 969 EH/s, setting a fresh all-time high. A sharp correction followed, dragging the 7-day moving average back under 900 EH/s before recovering toward the highs again. This attempt fell short, and hashrate eased back but this time it is consolidating in the 950 EH/s range. With U.S. summer curtailment programs nearing their end, network hashrate appears well-positioned to push higher once again.
Because hashrate stalled, last Friday’s difficulty adjustment was only minor. Despite the modest increase of just +0.20%, difficulty still climbed from 129.44 T to a new all-time high of 129.70 T.
Fee Drought Leaves Miner Revenues at the Mercy of BTC Price
Because the last three difficulty adjustments were relatively small (+1.07%, +1.42%, and +0.20%), miner earnings have continued to slide in line with the decline in BTC price. Since the beginning of the year, transaction fees have contributed little to overall revenue. Only eight times did tx fee briefly account for more than 1% of total block rewards. Currently hashprice is around $54/PH/day.
The following content is exclusively for our Premium Members:
Bitcoin’s fee market has collapsed, with “free blocks” now common and mempools often half-empty. A robust fee market was always expected to replace the subsidy over time, but if the current fee drought extends into the next halving, miners will need to innovate to survive. Get the full premium analysis to uncover what’s driving the rise of free blocks and how miners must adapt if this trend becomes the new normal.
Rise of “Free Blocks”
Changing User Behaviour
Strategic Outlook for Miners
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